Contagion and heterogeneity in new product diffusion: An emperical test

Marketing researchers often assume that innovation diffusion is affected by social contagion. However, there is increasing skepticism about the importance of contagion and, as has long been known, S-shaped diffusion curves can also result from heterogeneity in the propensity to adopt. To gain insight into the role of these two different—though not mutually exclusive—mechanisms, we present substantive conjectures about conditions under which contagion and heterogeneity are more pronounced, and test these conjectures using a meta-analysis of the q/p ratio in applications of the Bass diffusion model. We find that the q/p ratio is positively associated with the Gini index of income inequality in a country, supporting the heterogeneity-in-thresholds interpretation. We also find evidence that q/p varies as predicted by the G/SG diffusion model, but the evidence vanishes once we control for national culture. As to contagion, we find that the q/p ratio varies systematically with the four Hofstede dimensions of national culture, and for three of them in a pattern theoretically consistent with the social contagion interpretation. Furthermore, we find that products with competing standards have a higher q/p ratio, which is again consistent with the social contagion interpretation. Finally, we find effects of national culture only for products without competing standards, suggesting that technological effects and culturally mediated social contagion effects may not operate independently from each other

Studying Paths of Participation in Viral Diffusion Process

Authors propose a conceptual model of participation in viral diffusion process composed of four stages: awareness, infection, engagement and action. To verify the model it has been applied and studied in the virtual social chat environment settings. The study investigates the behavioral paths of actions that reflect the stages of participation in the diffusion and presents shortcuts, that lead to the final action, i.e. the attendance in a virtual event. The results show that the participation in each stage of the process increases the probability of reaching the final action. Nevertheless, the majority of users involved in the virtual event did not go through each stage of the process but followed the shortcuts. That suggests that the viral diffusion process is not necessarily a linear sequence of human actions but rather a dynamic system.Comment: In proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Social Informatics, SocInfo 201

Molecular Electroporation and the Transduction of Oligoarginines

Certain short polycations, such as TAT and polyarginine, rapidly pass through the plasma membranes of mammalian cells by an unknown mechanism called transduction as well as by endocytosis and macropinocytosis. These cell-penetrating peptides (CPPs) promise to be medically useful when fused to biologically active peptides. I offer a simple model in which one or more CPPs and the phosphatidylserines of the inner leaflet form a kind of capacitor with a voltage in excess of 180 mV, high enough to create a molecular electropore. The model is consistent with an empirical upper limit on the cargo peptide of 40--60 amino acids and with experimental data on how the transduction of a polyarginine-fluorophore into mouse C2C12 myoblasts depends on the number of arginines in the CPP and on the CPP concentration. The model makes three testable predictions.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure

Dissecting the illegal ivory trade: an analysis of ivory seizures data

Reliable evidence of trends in the illegal ivory trade is important for informing decision making for elephants but it is difficult to obtain due to the covert nature of the trade. The Elephant Trade Information System, a global database of reported seizures of illegal ivory, holds the only extensive information on illicit trade available. However inherent biases in seizure data make it difficult to infer trends; countries differ in their ability to make and report seizures and these differences cannot be directly measured. We developed a new modelling framework to provide quantitative evidence on trends in the illegal ivory trade from seizures data. The framework used Bayesian hierarchical latent variable models to reduce bias in seizures data by identifying proxy variables that describe the variability in seizure and reporting rates between countries and over time. Models produced bias-adjusted smoothed estimates of relative trends in illegal ivory activity for raw and worked ivory in three weight classes. Activity is represented by two indicators describing the number of illegal ivory transactions--Transactions Index--and the total weight of illegal ivory transactions--Weights Index--at global, regional or national levels. Globally, activity was found to be rapidly increasing and at its highest level for 16 years, more than doubling from 2007 to 2011 and tripling from 1998 to 2011. Over 70% of the Transactions Index is from shipments of worked ivory weighing less than 10 kg and the rapid increase since 2007 is mainly due to increased consumption in China. Over 70% of the Weights Index is from shipments of raw ivory weighing at least 100 kg mainly moving from Central and East Africa to Southeast and East Asia. The results tie together recent findings on trends in poaching rates, declining populations and consumption and provide detailed evidence to inform international decision making on elephants

Prospective Environmental Analyses of Emerging Technology: A Critique, a Proposed Methodology, and a Case Study on Incremental Sheet Forming

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154436/1/jiec12748-sup-0001-SuppMat.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154436/2/jiec12748_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154436/3/jiec12748.pd

Diffusion of Subsidized ACTs in Accredited Drug Shops in Tanzania: Determinants of Stocking and Characteristics of Early and Late Adopters.

Many households in sub-Saharan Africa utilize the private sector as a primary source of treatment for malaria episodes. Expanding access to effective treatment in private drug shops may help reduce incidence of severe disease and mortality. This research leveraged a longitudinal survey of stocking of subsidized artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs), an effective anti-malarial, in Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs) in two regions of Tanzania. This provided a unique opportunity to explore shop and market level determinants of product diffusion in a developing country retail market. 356 ADDOs in the Rukwa and Mtwara regions of Tanzania were surveyed at seven points between Feb 2011 and May 2012. Shop level audits were used to measure the availability of subsidized ACTs at each shop. Data on market and shop level factors were collected during the survey and also extracted from GIS layers. Regression and network based methodologies were used. Shops classified as early and late adopters, following Rogers' model of product diffusion, were compared. The Bass model of product diffusion was applied to determine whether shops stocked ACTs out of a need to imitate market competitors or a desire to satisfy customer needs. Following the introduction of a subsidy for ACTs, stocking increased from 12% to nearly 80% over the seven survey rounds. Stocking was influenced by higher numbers of proximal shops and clinics, larger customer traffic and the presence of a licensed pharmacist. Early adopters were characterized by a larger percentage of customers seeking care for malaria, a larger catchment and sourcing from specific wholesalers/suppliers. The Bass model of product diffusion indicated that shops were adopting products in response to competitor behavior, rather than customer demand. Decisions to stock new pharmaceutical products in Tanzanian ADDOs are influenced by a combination of factors related to both market competition and customer demand, but are particularly influenced by the behavior of competing shops. Efforts to expand access to new pharmaceutical products in developing country markets could benefit from initial targeting of high profile shops in competitive markets and wholesale suppliers to encourage faster product diffusion across all drug retailers

Rat model of metastatic breast cancer monitored by MRI at 3 tesla and bioluminescence imaging with histological correlation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Establishing a large rodent model of brain metastasis that can be monitored using clinically relevant magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques is challenging. Non-invasive imaging of brain metastasis in mice usually requires high field strength MR units and long imaging acquisition times. Using the brain seeking MDA-MB-231BR transfected with luciferase gene, a metastatic breast cancer brain tumor model was investigated in the nude rat. Serial MRI and bioluminescence imaging (BLI) was performed and findings were correlated with histology. Results demonstrated the utility of multimodality imaging in identifying unexpected sights of metastasis and monitoring the progression of disease in the nude rat.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Brain seeking breast cancer cells MDA-MB-231BR transfected with firefly luciferase (231BRL) were labeled with ferumoxides-protamine sulfate (FEPro) and 1-3 × 10⁶cells were intracardiac (IC) injected. MRI and BLI were performed up to 4 weeks to monitor the early breast cancer cell infiltration into the brain and formation of metastases. Rats were euthanized at different time points and the imaging findings were correlated with histological analysis to validate the presence of metastases in tissues.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Early metastasis of the FEPro labeled 231BRL were demonstrated onT2*-weighted MRI and BLI within 1 week post IC injection of cells. Micro-metastatic tumors were detected in the brain on T2-weighted MRI as early as 2 weeks post-injection in greater than 85% of rats. Unexpected skeletal metastases from the 231BRL cells were demonstrated and validated by multimodal imaging. Brain metastases were clearly visible on T2 weighted MRI by 3-4 weeks post infusion of 231BRL cells, however BLI did not demonstrate photon flux activity originating from the brain in all animals due to scattering of the photons from tumors.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A model of metastatic breast cancer in the nude rat was successfully developed and evaluated using multimodal imaging including MRI and BLI providing the ability to study the temporal and spatial distribution of metastases in the brain and skeleton.</p